#823 分析(續3)

Citi 823 report on 22-Jan

• Reiterate Buy (1L) — New target HK$20.41, based on our dividend discount model. The Link REIT offers a defensive property exposure under the current global market uncertainties, with a stable yet growing income stream, which should enjoy a continued upward revaluation given falling interest rates.
• Defensive play — The assets of the Link cater primarily to domestic demand, particularly daily necessity consumption. In our view, this should make it more immune to the potential adverse impact of a slowdown in the global economy.
• Decent growth prospect despite global slowdown — The assets of the Link appear undervalued (HK$2,206psf at current unit price) relative to their private sector peers (HK$18,923psf). We believe that they command a cost advantage versus other shopping malls, especially given that retailers will likely become more cost conscious given rising inflation and expected economic slowdown.
• Active management also provides growth — Continued cost reductions and rental reversions should help spur profit growth in the near term, while tenant remix and asset enhancements should help add value in the medium term.
• Benefiting from falling interest rates — For investors looking for a continued fall in the US and HK interest rates in the next 12 months, the Link REIT is an interesting alternative compared with other property companies due to its higher interest rate sensitivity. Based on our dividend discount model, every 25bps decrease in interest rates would result in a 6% increase in our estimated fair value for the Link REIT.

花旗最新對 #823 分析的 report 說每減 0.25%息，就使 #823 的目標股價提升 6%。在過往一年，#823 的平均價是$17.2 (未向上突破時的 250MA value，所以筆者在股災當日在 $17.3 加碼了 #823)。美國剛剛減了 0.75%息，現在合理價是 $17.2 * 1.06 * 1.06 * 1.06 = $20.5。月尾議息時，最少也會減少 0.25%，合理價提高到 $20.5 * 1.06 = $21.7。以昨日收市價 $18.92 計，月底前預期有 15% 升幅，又是一次穩陣賺錢的機會。筆者昨日又一次訓身買入 #823 正股。希望再來多次實食無癡牙。

有兩點要顧慮，#823 歷史高位 $20 的阻力是不少，近月上試了兩次都無功而回。有不少 #823 投資者在 $20 左右食糊離場。加上近月在股場上的末日情緒甚重，#823 要突破 $20 這個重要阻力位實在不是一件容易的事。從月線圖看，股價上破 $20 後，下一站是 $25。

預期月底時美國聯邦儲備率會減到3.25%，市場預期美國還會進一步減息到2.5%為止。在減息的預期下，#823 終極目標價是 $20.5 * 1.06 * 1.06 * 1.06 * 1.06 = $25.9。剛好和突破 $20 後的向量升幅相若。